展望2023年全球可再生能源市场机遇（29页）

Renewable electricity capacity additions broke another record in 2021 and biofuels demand almost recovered to pre-Covid levels, despite the continuation of logistical challenges and increasing prices. However, the Russian Federation’s (hereafter, “Russia”) invasion of Ukraine is sending shock waves through energy and agriculture markets, resulting in an unprecedented global energy crisis. In many countries, governments are trying to shelter consumers from higher energy prices, reduce dependence on Russian supplies and are proposing policies to accelerate the transition to clean energy technologies.

2021，可再生电力容量的增加打破了另一个记录，生物燃料需求几乎恢复到新冠肺炎之前的水平，尽管物流仍在继续挑战和不断上涨的价格。然而，俄罗斯联邦（以下简称：，“俄罗斯”）对乌克兰的入侵正在通过能源和农业市场，导致了前所未有的全球能源危机。在许多方面各国政府正试图保护消费者免受能源价格上涨的影响，减少对俄罗斯供应的依赖，并正在提出加速供应的政策向清洁能源技术的过渡。

Renewable energy has great potential to reduce prices and dependence on fossil fuels in short and long term. Although costs for new solar PV and wind installations have increased, reversing a decade-long cost reduction trend, natural gas, oil and coal prices have risen much faster, therefore actually further improving the competitiveness of renewable electricity. However, how rapidly renewables can substitute fossil fuels hinges on several uncertainties and will depend on many factors. Will renewable electricity sources defy this global energy crisis and continue to expand quickly despite emerging political and macroeconomic challenges? At the same time, growth in biofuels demand faces significant headwinds from both lower transport demand growth and high biofuel prices. Will demand growth resume at historical rates?

可再生能源在降低价格和减少对化石能源的依赖方面具有巨大潜力短期和长期燃料。尽管新太阳能光伏和风力发电装置的成本已经增加，扭转了长达十年的成本下降趋势，天然气、石油和煤炭价格上涨得更快，因此实际上进一步改善了环境可再生电力的竞争力。然而，可再生能源能以多快的速度替代化石燃料取决于几个不确定因素，并将取决于许多因素因素。可再生能源能否抵御这场全球能源危机并继续下去在新出现的政治和宏观经济挑战面前快速扩张？在与此同时，生物燃料需求的增长面临着来自这两方面的巨大阻力较低的运输需求增长和较高的生物燃料价格。需求会恢复增长吗按历史汇率？

In exploring the most recent market and policy developments as of April 2022, our Renewable Energy Market Update forecasts new global renewable power capacity additions and biofuel demand for 2022 and 2023. It also discusses key uncertainties and policy-related implications that may affect projections for 2023 and beyond

在探索截至2022年4月的最新市场和政策发展时，我们的可再生能源市场更新预测全球新的可再生能源发电能力2022年和2023年的增加量和生物燃料需求。它还讨论了关键的不确定性以及可能影响2023年及以后预测的政策相关影响

This study was prepared by the Renewable Energy Division in the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security. It was designed and directed by Heymi Bahar, Senior Analyst.

本研究由美国可再生能源部编制能源市场和安全。它是由海米·巴哈尔设计和导演的分析师

The lead authors of the report were Heymi Bahar (electricity) and Jeremy Moorhouse (biofuels). The report benefited from analysis and input from multiple colleagues: Yasmina Abdelilah, Piotr Bojek, François Briens, Trevor Criswell, Kazuhiro Kurumi, Kartik Veerakumar and Grecia Rodríguez Jiménez (also responsible for data management).

报告的主要作者是海米·巴哈尔（电力）和杰里米Moorhouse（生物燃料）。该报告得益于来自多个国家的分析和投入同事：亚斯米娜·阿卜杜利拉、彼得·博杰克、弗朗索瓦·布莱恩斯、特雷弗·克里斯威尔、，Kazuhiro Kurumi、Kartik Veerakumar和Grecia Rodríguez Jiménez（也是负责数据管理）。

Paolo Frankl, Head of the Renewable Energy Division, provided strategic guidance and input to this work and contributed to relevant messaging. Valuable comments and feedback were provided by Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security Directorate.

可再生能源部门负责人保罗·弗兰克尔提供了战略指导并为这项工作提供投入，并为相关信息传递做出贡献。有价值的评论能源市场总监Keisuke Sadamori提供了反馈安全理事会。

Thanks go to the IEA Communication and Digitalisation Office (CDO) for their help in producing the report and website materials, particularly to Jad Mouawad, Head of CDO, and to Jon Custer, Astrid Dumond, Merve Erdil, Jethro Mullen, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin, Julie Puech, Robert Stone, Gregory Viscusi and Therese Walsh.

感谢国际能源署通信和数字化办公室（CDO）的帮助在制作报告和网站材料时，特别是向Jad Mouawad来自CDO的Jon Custer、Astrid Dumond、Merve Erdil、Jethro Mullen、IsabelleNonain Semelin、Julie Puech、Robert Stone、Gregory Viscusi和Therese Walsh。

Diane Munro carried editorial responsibility

黛安·蒙罗承担编辑责任